Lib Dems better off with Nick Clegg staying put

Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An’ if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
– The Clash

The Liberal democrats were a routed army Monday morning. After losing 10 of their 11 MEPs and a chunk of local chancellors the previous week, the mood was gloomy. Despite being continuously battered since entering the coalition pact with the Tories, the party has remained remarkably united always deployed an effective shield wall around their leadership.

Nick Clegg “gutted and heartbroken” after election defeats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Euro election was the straw that broke some camels backs and knives were out when some members called for Cleggs resignation. Then The Guardian got hold a of a poll financed by a party member showing that the Lib Dems is heading for disaster in 2015 and may lose important seats like the one help by Nick Clegg.

The political reporters was on it as bloodhounds to reveal who was behind the poll. The whodunnit chase traced it all back to Lord Oakeshott, a Lib Dem peer with known grudges against Clegg. After being revealed he resigned his party membership and took a leave of absence from the House.

Th question many has been asking is if the Lib Dems would be better off with a new leader in the year leading to the general election in 2015. What we have of published or leaked polling shows that a change of leadership would not do much to change their dire situation.

The party members should instead prepare their local campaigns for reselection in the seats they hold. Extremely well targeted and focused campaigns have resulted in many strong local party branches with several councillors to its name able to challenge the two established parties. With a colossal effort and a bit of luck they will hold on to enough seats in 2015 to be potential king makers again. If Ukip succeeds in splitting the vote for both the Conservatives and Labour a hung parliament is likely and the Lib Dems might find themselves in a new coalition.

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Fight back or see victory slip away

What will your next moves be, Ed?

Ed Miliband and his crew are in the shit. Growth in GDP in the second quarter of this year on 0.6% gave the Tory media the ammo it wanted so badly to elevate Chancellor Osborne to the status of a demigod and blast Labour for being wrong all along. The recent spats over Labours links with the unions haven’t helped either.

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The Looney Fruitcake Invasion

UKIP leader Nigel Farage

Cry UKIP and let slip the shire councillors

The coalition government parties took a beating and UKIP surged to new heights in Thursday’s council elections. UKIP leader Nigel Faragre hailed the election result as a game changer in British politics.

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The new hand of God

Newly elected Pope Francis I greets the crowd in Rome Photograph: Osservatore Romano/Reuters

After a surprisingly short conclave, the cardinals elected Jorge Mario Bergoglio from Argentina to be the next Pope, bishop of Rome and leader of catholics across the world. He inherits a mountains of problems for his church, but will the 76 year old will have the strength and more importantly will, to alter his church for the better.

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Predictions for the US presidential election 2012

I can clearly remember it, the massive wave of enthusiasm that rolled over the United States. It was 2008 and Barack Obama was the hottest of everything hot. After defeating Hillary Clinton in the primaries he entered the battle for presidency not only on a democratic ticket after eight years of George Bush madness, but he also ran as the first non-white candidate with a real chance of victory. Hopes for victory for Obama was probably even higher in Europe than in the US itself. Finally a sane politician in the White House, no more Texas lone ranger lunacy and warmongering. At least we could hope so.

Now 2008 is long gone and Obama stands for re-election in November. He played high to gain his presidency, and now many voters have lost faith in him. The Hope campaign has been replaced by a plea for more time to fix Americas problems. Many of the promises that he made has not been fulfilled in the last four years. Some of his other policies has also enraged many of his hopeful supporters from 2008. Guantanamo is still going strong as a prison far from international law and human decency and unmanned drones kills hundreds of Pakistanis in the border regions with Afghanistan were the death toll of US soldier just breached the 2000 line.

In the opposite corner, the Republicans has rallied to the banner of Mitt Romney. A right-wing radical bent on dramatically reducing the role of the state in favour of opening up for business. He’s mantra has been that he “knows business”, backed by his background as a successful businessman.

Until lately, Romney and Obama raced neck-to-neck in the polls. But then the week of gaffes by Romney and some of his legionaries has caused a severe slowdown of the republican campaign. His now famous comments about the 47% of the American population he claimed voted for Obama because they depend on the state and fail to take responsibility of their own lives. He said this under a fund raiser dinner and was never intended to reach the public, but a video was published on youtube and all hell broke lose.

Now Romney are trailing behind as Obama has secured a lead of 4.1 percent point, at least for now. The national polling average gives Obama a lead with 48.7 percent and Romney 44.6 percent. I the two important swing states of Ohio and Florida, Obama keeps his leads with 10 and 9 percentage point respectively.

So how will the election in November turn out?

There is still crucial weeks of campaigning and TV debates left before lection day, but I dare give my predictions.

Obama will win, that’s my bet. He will win important swing states like Colorado, Ohio and possibly Florida and secure enough delegates to the electoral collage and continue as president.