Predictions for the US presidential election 2012

I can clearly remember it, the massive wave of enthusiasm that rolled over the United States. It was 2008 and Barack Obama was the hottest of everything hot. After defeating Hillary Clinton in the primaries he entered the battle for presidency not only on a democratic ticket after eight years of George Bush madness, but he also ran as the first non-white candidate with a real chance of victory. Hopes for victory for Obama was probably even higher in Europe than in the US itself. Finally a sane politician in the White House, no more Texas lone ranger lunacy and warmongering. At least we could hope so.

Now 2008 is long gone and Obama stands for re-election in November. He played high to gain his presidency, and now many voters have lost faith in him. The Hope campaign has been replaced by a plea for more time to fix Americas problems. Many of the promises that he made has not been fulfilled in the last four years. Some of his other policies has also enraged many of his hopeful supporters from 2008. Guantanamo is still going strong as a prison far from international law and human decency and unmanned drones kills hundreds of Pakistanis in the border regions with Afghanistan were the death toll of US soldier just breached the 2000 line.

In the opposite corner, the Republicans has rallied to the banner of Mitt Romney. A right-wing radical bent on dramatically reducing the role of the state in favour of opening up for business. He’s mantra has been that he “knows business”, backed by his background as a successful businessman.

Until lately, Romney and Obama raced neck-to-neck in the polls. But then the week of gaffes by Romney and some of his legionaries has caused a severe slowdown of the republican campaign. His now famous comments about the 47% of the American population he claimed voted for Obama because they depend on the state and fail to take responsibility of their own lives. He said this under a fund raiser dinner and was never intended to reach the public, but a video was published on youtube and all hell broke lose.

Now Romney are trailing behind as Obama has secured a lead of 4.1 percent point, at least for now. The national polling average gives Obama a lead with 48.7 percent and Romney 44.6 percent. I the two important swing states of Ohio and Florida, Obama keeps his leads with 10 and 9 percentage point respectively.

So how will the election in November turn out?

There is still crucial weeks of campaigning and TV debates left before lection day, but I dare give my predictions.

Obama will win, that’s my bet. He will win important swing states like Colorado, Ohio and possibly Florida and secure enough delegates to the electoral collage and continue as president.


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