Has Cameron cashed his check?

 

He entered the scene as the fresh prince of the Tory party, but will he go down in history as the prime minister that accomplished nothing?

Dark clouds gather over Birmingham as the local police withdraw from the streets to make an iron ring around the Conservatives annual conference. Inside the conference hall, the prospects of the 2015 election looks as bright as the legendary London smog. The bookmakers all agree David Cameron and his coalition government are heading for defeat, unless conditions change radically.

Return of the Nasty Party

Reports tell of unrest among the troops on the ground. Conservative right-wingers disillusioned by modernizing attempts and assault on heartland feelings. Gay marriage and High Speed Rail are hard to swallow for the local reactionary footmen. Halfway true his first term as Chief in No 10. the voters are not happy with the results of Tory policy in government.

 

The plan was simple enough in its strategy. Spending cuts and painful tax adjustments should all be done by mid term, giving the Tories time so soften the electorate when the next election was closing in. Hopefully the economy would be growing by mid term so Chancellor Osborne could hand out feelgood tax-giveaways to boost the party in the polls. But as most great plans laid by mice and men, they tend to run into trouble. The British economy is, like in most European countries in a state of stagnation. A deepening Eurizone crisis was in large measure a result of the same austerity policies as Cameron and Osborne advocate as the right medicine for Britain.

 

When Cameron was elected leader of the Conservatives he was view by many as a breath of fresh air on the right, leading as wave of modernization of the party. Last Monday his efforts to give the Tories a new image was undermined by a rally of some 900 people, the majority active party members opposing gay marriage. Things are also turning more nasty on other fronts. Chancellor George Osborne has announced that he will cut the welfare budget with another £10bn a year. The planned cuts will be in addition to the £18bn reduction in welfare spending by 2014 that the Chancellor announced in March. Cameron himself has also taken a step backwards recently as he revealed that he supports lowering of the time limit in which abortions can be carried out. Gay rights activists and women’s groups are rightly outraged by this acts of savage conservatism, and social liberal conservatives have one hell of a fight to prevent the Tory party from reaching a new peak of heterosexual male nastiness.

 

All hail Bozza!

A survey conducted by the ConservativeHome website for The Independent shows that if David Cameron can not secure a win in the next general election, he will most likely be scrapped by his party members in favour of London’s popular mayor Boris Jonhson or the rising star Michael Gove.

 

Boris Johnson, the legendary Bozza and Olypotastic major of London is predicted to outshine Cameron himself in the conference hall. As one of the most popular conservative politicians in Brittain since Christendom become the new faith. His followers hailing him as the leader in waiting and rumours of his abilities to resurrect the Tories can rival those of Jesus Christ himself. The current ruling clan of the Tory tribe, the slick Cameronites desperately tries to limit the bravado of Boris and smear him as incapable of being a further leader of the party and the nation. Ken Clarke, one of Cameron’s chief advisers questioned Boris ability to “seriously deliver” and warned that next year he could be out of fashion. The Boris fans take little notice of this, as the masses was queueing to see him speak.

 

State shrinker Inc

The growing certainty of only a one term lifespan of the government has led to a mad dash to implement as much right-wing policy as possible before election day 2015. No mater how unpopular it would be. Their goal is to shrink the state as much as possible before they get ousted by Red Ed and his plebs.

 

George Osborne, the chancellor and lead Tory surgeon, told the conference of a “silent revolution taking place”. The silent revolution being a grand scale butchery of the state and the rolling back of the achievements of social democracy. Boldly and without a trace of shame he continued. “The most radical and reforming period of government this country has seen for a generation… I am the chancellor who is cutting the size of government faster than anyone in modern times.” There is some truth in his words and that is not good news for the working class of Britain. Right-wing radicals seems to have captured the party and now ideology prevails over common sense and the facts of reality. In their theu picth what they claim is the wealth creators against the so called wealth takers. Those who contribute a net income for the state vs. those who take out more in benefits, school and healthcare during a lifetime than they contribute in taxes.

 

Through a campaign to demonize those on benefits and unemployed, the universal right-winger chants about how the poor can thank themselves because only reason why they are not richer is their laszyness. This foul logic completely overlooks the millions of working poor that work harder than anyone but still struggles to make ends meet. God knows what kind of mind bending drugs that circulate in the ivory tower of conservatism these days.

 

Ed the contender

Although Labour was leading in the polls, conservatives could sit at relative ease because of voters distrust in Ed Miliband and his abilities as a leader. Now, after Miliband used his conference speech to successfully stun his critics and mount an One Nation offensive into Tory heartland, tension is high in Birmingham.

 

Labour has rallied and stands united behind Ed Miliband, welcoming a steady stream of former Lib-Dem voters angry with their party’s performance in government. The Conservatives on the other hand leak voters to UKIP. A increasingly confident Labour might mount a more successful opposition in the future and hamper the Tory campaign.

 

Cracking Coalition

The Liberal Democrats seamed ahead on their maiden voyage in their brand new government ship, but soon hit the Tory iceberg of junior party reality and went down in freezing waves of voters disapproval as the Cleggster orchestra played the tunes of apologies. The rumours of heavy casualties runs hot on the wire.

 

There is plenty of time until election day 2015, so any sane person should not jump to conclusions. Anyhow, prime minister Cameron must feel the odds stacking up against him as deeper cuts drags his party down in the polls. Even the state of his own coalition government should give him a headache or two. The Liberal Democrats must consider a early exit from the coalition in an possible attempt to avoid annihilation in 2015. Within his own party ranks starts to break as large groups of his members calls for Boris Johnson to replace him as leader. It seems that Cameron wants to go straight ahead, not slowing down his Tory agenda. Maybe it does not matter to him what the people think of his policies, he will not be re-elected anyway so why not do as much as possible before the time comes to move out of No 10 for good.

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Predictions for the US presidential election 2012

I can clearly remember it, the massive wave of enthusiasm that rolled over the United States. It was 2008 and Barack Obama was the hottest of everything hot. After defeating Hillary Clinton in the primaries he entered the battle for presidency not only on a democratic ticket after eight years of George Bush madness, but he also ran as the first non-white candidate with a real chance of victory. Hopes for victory for Obama was probably even higher in Europe than in the US itself. Finally a sane politician in the White House, no more Texas lone ranger lunacy and warmongering. At least we could hope so.

Now 2008 is long gone and Obama stands for re-election in November. He played high to gain his presidency, and now many voters have lost faith in him. The Hope campaign has been replaced by a plea for more time to fix Americas problems. Many of the promises that he made has not been fulfilled in the last four years. Some of his other policies has also enraged many of his hopeful supporters from 2008. Guantanamo is still going strong as a prison far from international law and human decency and unmanned drones kills hundreds of Pakistanis in the border regions with Afghanistan were the death toll of US soldier just breached the 2000 line.

In the opposite corner, the Republicans has rallied to the banner of Mitt Romney. A right-wing radical bent on dramatically reducing the role of the state in favour of opening up for business. He’s mantra has been that he “knows business”, backed by his background as a successful businessman.

Until lately, Romney and Obama raced neck-to-neck in the polls. But then the week of gaffes by Romney and some of his legionaries has caused a severe slowdown of the republican campaign. His now famous comments about the 47% of the American population he claimed voted for Obama because they depend on the state and fail to take responsibility of their own lives. He said this under a fund raiser dinner and was never intended to reach the public, but a video was published on youtube and all hell broke lose.

Now Romney are trailing behind as Obama has secured a lead of 4.1 percent point, at least for now. The national polling average gives Obama a lead with 48.7 percent and Romney 44.6 percent. I the two important swing states of Ohio and Florida, Obama keeps his leads with 10 and 9 percentage point respectively.

So how will the election in November turn out?

There is still crucial weeks of campaigning and TV debates left before lection day, but I dare give my predictions.

Obama will win, that’s my bet. He will win important swing states like Colorado, Ohio and possibly Florida and secure enough delegates to the electoral collage and continue as president.